tEcOdH

Why Pakistan Does Not Want a Powerful Afghanistan Next to It?

Mohibullah Noori, Fajristan Regional Integration Movement (FRIM),

TECODH, October 2025.

Since its creation in 1947, Pakistan’s national security policy has been guided by the belief that its survival is threatened by hostile neighbors on both sides — India to the east and Afghanistan to the west. This idea has shaped much of Pakistan’s regional behavior and foreign policy.

The roots of this perception go back to Afghanistan’s refusal to recognize the 1893 Durand Line, which separates the two countries. Afghan governments have often claimed that parts of Pakistan’s territory, especially areas inhabited by Pashtun and Baloch communities, rightfully belong to Afghanistan. Whenever Afghanistan has achieved a period of political stability, these territorial and ethnic claims have resurfaced. At times, Afghanistan even offered moral or political support to separatist movements in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces.

From Pakistan’s perspective, such actions represent serious threats to national unity and security. In response, Pakistan’s military and intelligence institutions have supported proxy groups inside Afghanistan to maintain influence and to ensure that no strong Afghan government could emerge to challenge Pakistan’s western border.

The Taliban’s return to power in 2021 seemed to fulfill Pakistan’s goal of establishing a friendly and dependent government in Afghanistan. However, the result has been the opposite of what Pakistan expected. The rise of the Taliban in Afghanistan strengthened the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)—a militant group closely linked by ideology and tribe to the Afghan Taliban. The TTP has since increased its attacks within Pakistan, undermining Pakistan’s internal security.

The Afghan Taliban’s unwillingness or inability to restrain the TTP has deepened mistrust between the two sides. At the same time, the Taliban’s growing diplomatic engagement with India suggests a shift in regional alignments. By building closer ties with India, Afghan Taliban appears to be seeking political leverage against Pakistan, turning Afghanistan into a new arena of India–Pakistan rivalry.

However, on the other hand, lack of a legitimate and inclusive government in Afghanistan continues to worsen the situation. The Taliban regime does not represent all ethnic and political groups in Afghanistan, nor does it have formal international recognition. This political vacuum allows militant organizations, foreign intelligence services, and regional powers to pursue their own interests, which seems to be troublesome for Pakistan too.

Well, Pakistan’s long-standing fear of a strong and independent Afghanistan has produced policies that have often undermined its own security. But, the use of proxies and reliance on instability as a tool of influence have also backfired, empowering militant groups like the TTP and damaging Pakistan’s internal cohesion. TECODH.

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